A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."